Problems for Facebook began with the statements of analysts. The press came out with reports of "attacks on reputation", "privacy guaranteed", "data theft", "political bias", and other scandals. The issue of the vulnerability of audit reports has come out again, as in published recently by us scandal with the possible bankruptcy of "Tether" (the company with a market capitalization of $ 2.7 billion. Auditors confirmed the volume of the company's deposits only on a specific date).
However, we believe that all these are only the provocative act, we all know how the social mechanism can push banks to collapse on the basis of a couple of rumors about stopped transfers, the fundamental problems are much deeper. Even without reputational "arrows", fired towards the Facebook, it became clear that it can no longer grow at the same pace.
The growing base of the social network affected not only by the demographic situation and the opening of new markets but also by the accusation of excessive politicization (not without reason), the participation in dissatisfaction with social regimes in certain countries lead to market segmentation (China has closed its market for Facebook).
But after all, what did the founders of these companies lose in reality?
And how to measure events which did not take place?
We believe that the company and its owners did not lose $ 17 billion. They just have lost records of the journal entry and the book of record, the "zeros" in computers. No reasonable investor would buy such company for such amount of money or even a part of the company's formation packages for their current value. Moreover, having decided to sell their companies, Zuckerberg or Bill Gates will immediately bring down the stock value to a small amount. As soon as the significant parcel of shares of such companies is put up for sale, the impairment of the value of the companies will demonstrate the limit of more or less fair price.
Here we treat the problem of the basic concepts that form the basis of the modern structure of the stock market and the problems of its revaluation, as well as the re-evaluation of technology companies in general.
The fall was provoked, rather not by the absolute measure of the reports, but by the unfulfilled expectations of investors, who felt the next wave of the dot-com crash.
The classic stock market has been vulnerable to various news, "leaks", and changes of indicators, reflected by traditional financial reports long ago.
The market of modern social networks and its assessment, traditionally measured by the standard quantity index inherent to the post-industrial economy, but not its new directions (experience economy, the knowledge-driven economy, nonmaterial social effects). At the present moment, the evaluation of the project based on the growth of a number of users, the "monetization" of these users, some kind of an "average bill" for one person and all these are near to overindulgence, an increase of an audience and purchase of " likes". This approach stimulates the overindulgence and creation of "bubbles" in a corporate appraisal. "Bubbles" in this area did not disappear anywhere, they have blended into various forms and reports, but thereon, did not turn the company's data into something real.
So, does it make sense to invest trillions of dollars in the Internet infrastructure, if it does not lead to the expected political and economic results ?!
Further investment of trillions of dollars in the Internet infrastructure is meaningless if it does not lead to the expected economic or political results. Without a mechanical audience gain, there will be no serious investments towards which are directed the current projects in this field. There is a need for new forms of people unification with more qualified characteristics or tendencies.
The main headache for investors is the doomed recognition of that the modern technology companies are at the end of the resources for the further growth.
The Internet has reached the growth limit in the structure and forms in which it existed and developed in recent years.
We think that others will string along with Facebook now.